de Ciprian Bădescu(EN), Editor-in-Chief Oltenia Azi
Sociologist Ilie Bădescu, corresponding member of the Romanian Academy, director of the Institute of Sociology, commented for Oltenia Azi newspaper on the results of the June 9 elections in Romania.
Oltenia Azi: How do you comment on the election results, Professor Bădescu?
Prof.Ilie Bădescu: The results significantly support the hypothesis of a recanalization of a significant portion of voters. This phenomenon is pan-European. In France, Marine Le Pen wins 35% of the votes, in Germany, AfD reaches a very high threshold, in Poland, PiS is back on the rise, etc. In Romania, AUR wins 17%, which clearly confirms the hypothesis of the emergence of a trend towards a recanalization of electorates. However, the hypothesis of repolarization was not confirmed. In Romania, the pole remains the same, induced by the PSD-PNL alliance. It is worth noting, however, the social prudence indicating a certain skepticism of the type: „these ones won’t do what they promise either.” (Probably the case of Maloni in Italy has its relevance in the interpretation of European elections in general). A repolarization would be possible if the sovereigntist wave becomes visible in the European Parliament and in the reactions on the local political market. Otherwise, things will take a nasty turn. The moral responsibility of the newcomers on the forefront scene is enormous. For this, these parties should attract technicians, not pseudo-theologians with gestures but no real substance. The moment of grand declarations about Christian attitudes, etc., has passed right from the announcement of the results. From tomorrow onwards, a party like Simion’s will be taking the capability test. The moment of enthusiasm has already passed. The time has come for self-flagellation, for an uncompromising self-evaluation because the hour is heavy and merciless. Nations stand alone in the face of a terrifying mental engineering experiment. Wakefulness means: „You know what to do, go ahead; declarations of good intentions don’t interest me. You don’t know what to do, get out of the line! Let the next one come.” This is what sovereigntist-realist parties can do. Otherwise, they will succumb
Oltenia Azi:Can the PSD-PNL alliance be considered a barrier against the rise of AUR? What is the key in which this alliance should be interpreted, considering that there have been electoral alliances between the two parties in the past, such as the USL?
Prof.Ilie Bădescu: The outcome will paradoxically depend on AUR, not the alliance. The alliance has a comfortable position and will do what it has always done: very little for Romanians and a lot for strategic allies and, obviously, for its own operations. If AUR is not strong, the outcome will be zero, and the next elections will sweep it off the stage. The example of PRM is conclusive. Despite the charismatic quality of the person who was, in a way, the party itself, Corneliu Vadim Tudor, when the “technicians,” i.e., the “real” party members, like Buzatu, Ciuceanu, Ungheanu, earlier Teodoru, Bolcaş, left, the party practically sank. The destiny of AUR therefore depends on the group of “technicians,” like Avram Fitiu, Radu Baltasiu, Tanase, Târziu, and others whom I do not mention because it is not my concern.
The decline of USR, for example, can be explained by the gap between some attitudes and statements of the leaders and the Romanian social current, which did not resonate with those statements, attitudes, etc. It is, of course, a hypothesis, but at a quick glance, we can assume that things might stand like that. Unfortunately, the geopolitical configuration of the world is still not reflected in our electoral geopolitics and even in other European countries. The geoeconomic issue is so severe due to the planetary takeover effect by large corporations that it is difficult to manage things through the reaction of a single party. On a national scale, the outcome depends on the alliance between a sovereigntist party and the state, much like in Hungary (although Orban’s recent statements diminish Hungary’s relevance as a regional actor). I will not insist.
Oltenia Azi: How much did the decisions of the current PSD-PNL Government to increase the minimum wage and pensions, decisions announced by the prime minister during the election campaign, matter to the electorate?
Prof.Ilie Bădescu: It mattered not exclusively through the truth of the statements, but through a plausibility coefficient given by the past of the PSD’s pro-social orientation (this party displayed social policies which it timidly applied, but it applied them). That explains its staying afloat (and this was also the lifeline for the PNL). The weakness lies in the timidity of the party’s foreign policy orientations (a lack of sovereignist attitude in the style of Orban’s party). This explains the success of GOLD: it appeared on the wave of hope for a sovereign compensation on which depends the defensive capacity in front of the geopolitics of the „big space” (behind which are corporations, civilization-states, etc.). That’s how things seem to be.
Recorded by Ilinca Samira Locusteanu
